Are local Republicans asleep or otherwise unaware that a crucial Congressional seat is up for grabs? Despite Northwest Florida being a GOP stronghold, voting results so far in the April 1 special election show that, per party, Democratic voters have been outvoting Republicans by an average of more than 50% across Florida’s 1st Congressional District.
CD-01 covers Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa Counties, plus a portion of Walton County. Average vote-by-mail turnouts to date are: Republican ~2.75%, Democrat ~6.06% and NPA/other ~1.7%.
Historically, low turnout plagues special elections, so single-digit turnout so far isn’t much of a surprise. What is shocking is the rate of blue vs. red votes.
Florida’s Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis won the Jan. 28 CD-01 Republican primary by a supermajority margin and is facing off against Democrat Gay Valimont, NPA Stephen Broden and write-in candidates. But so far, Panhandle Republicans don’t seem concerned about Patronis’ chances – probably because he’s Trump hand-picked candidate for the job.
But such apathy could prove disastrous for the GOP. Here’s why: the current balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives is 218 Republicans to 213 Democrats, and there are presently four vacant seats:
- FL CD-01 (former seat of Republican Matt Gaetz);
- FL CD-06 (former seat of Republican and newly appointed National Security Advisor Mike Waltz);
- AZ CD-07 (Democrat Grijalva died March 13, 2025);
- TX CD-18 (Democrat Sylvester Turner died March 4, 2025).
Not only are Democrats across the nation are working hard to flip Florida’s two open seats blue, but also they will be rallying together to retain the Congressional seats in Arizona and Texas.
Meanwhile, Florida Republicans seem more interested in infighting than battling to hold onto its two open Congressional seats.
As of Friday morning, results of vote-by-mail ballots so far in CD-01 show:
ESCAMBIA COUNTY
- 102,948 (~47%) Republican voters have turned in 5,411 ballots = ~5.25% turnout
- 65,762 (~30%) Democrat voters 5,064 have turned in ballots = ~7.7% turnout
- 52,347 (~23%) NPA/other voters have turned in 1,526 ballots = ~2.9% turnout
SANTA ROSA
- 92,209 (~62%) Republican voters have turned in 1,338 ballots = ~1.4% turnout
- 22,274 (~15%) Democrat voters have turned in 1,099 ballots = ~5.0% turnout
- 34,222 (~23%) NPA/other voters have turned in 374 ballots = ~1.0% turnout
OKALOOSA
- 88,807 (~57%) Republican voters have turned in 1,463 mail ballots = ~1.6% turnout
- 26,082 (~17%) Democrat voters have turned in 1,473 mail ballots = ~5.6% turnout
- 40,349 (~26%) NPA/other voters have turned in 486 mail ballots = ~1.2% turnout
WALTON COUNTY
Only portions of Walton County are within CD-01 but so far the breakdown by Party is:
- Republicans have turned in 717
- Democrats have turned in 352
- NPA/other have turned in 147
Early voting starts tomorrow in FL’s CD-01 and CD-06.
In Santa Rosa County, early voting will be available daily from 8:30 a.m. until 4:30 p.m., starting tomorrow, Saturday. March 22 and running through Saturday, March 29 at the following locations:
- Main Elections Office (Behind McDonalds on U.S. 90, Milton)
6495 Caroline St., Suite “F,” Milton, FL 32570-4592 - South Santa Rosa Service Center (one block east of Gulf Breeze Zoo on U.S. 98)
5841 Gulf Breeze Pkwy. (U.S. 98), Gulf Breeze, FL 32563
Election Day is Tuesday, April 1, Precincts will be open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. For more information call Villane’s office at 850-983-1900 or visit http://votesantarosa.gov
