POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 1500 UTC WED JUL 10 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY… A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR… * MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO MORGAN CITY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR… * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MORGAN CITY A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT WEST OF MORGAN CITY. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT…CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 86.4W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 86.1W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W…POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE MAX WIND 25 KT…GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W…TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W MAX WIND 40 KT…GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT… 50NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W MAX WIND 50 KT…GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT… 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT… 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W MAX WIND 75 KT…GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT… 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT…100NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE…ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5…AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W…INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT…GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W…INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT…GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.5N 86.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY…WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2…AT 10/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z 
