Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued west of the Alabama/Florida border. The Tropical Storm Watch along the west coast of Florida has been discontinued south of Chassahowitzka. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite, aircraft, and radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is making landfall just northwest of Mexico Beach, Florida. At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 85.5 West. Michael is moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move inland across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia tonight. Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday night, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday. Recent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western Atlantic. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A wind gust of 130 mph (210 mph) was recently reported at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust to 129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport. The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 919 mb (27.41 inches). A minimum pressure of 920 mb was recently reported by a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above ground level. WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue to spread inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia this afternoon and tonight. With the landfall of Michael's eye occurring, everyone in the landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye passes! Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.